On May 26, the City’s Chief Operating Officer, Josh Morse, hosted an online community meeting on the possible consolidation of Ward and Underwood elementary schools. He presented the findings that led him to conclude the schools should not be consolidated, citing rebounding enrollment, site limitations and minimal, if any, cost savings.
Enrollment projections
Josh Morse started the presentation by laying out the enrollment projections that fed the discussions of the 2023 Underwood-Ward Task Force. At that time, Underwood enrollment was at 221 and Ward at 194. Five-year projections created by NPS had Underwood at 188 and Ward at 120 in 2028. However, both schools’ enrollment has rebounded since the pandemic, with Underwood enrollment at 251 and Ward at 202, with district projections for 2031 at 243 and 220, respectively. The McKibben professional demographer projection puts the schools at 282 and 258 respectively in 2033, with assumed housing turnover.
Based on these projections and a 10% buffer, a consolidated Ward/Underwood would need to be built to serve a minimum of 509 students, which would place it as the largest elementary school ever built in Newton. Additional enrollments from a return to pre-pandemic enrollment levels would bring this number to 660 students, which would make it larger than either Bigelow or Oak Hill Middle Schools. Mr. Morse noted that when he started working for Newton in 2007, there was consternation over elementary school design enrollments in the upper 400-student range. In the history of the existing buildings, there were times when they housed up to 600 students, but this was 75 years ago, at the height of the Baby Boom, when Newton’s educational model was very different and students still went home for lunch.
Additionally, Mr. Morse referenced recent national demographic studies (like this one by the Congressional Budget Office) that show fertility rates, which have long been declining, projected to level off. That trend – combined with the number of older adults living in Newton who are likely to turn their homes over to families with young children when they move out – leads him to believe that the City as a whole is likely to see a modest increase in enrollment rather than a continued decline. He also cited statewide data that showed Newton’s population growth numbers (modest though they may be at about 0.5% annually) as one of the highest in the state.
Site limitations
Mr. Morse presented maps of three sites in the part of Newton that could be considered for such a building project:
Ward School
- Half of the land that is usually attributed to Ward is Article 97*-protected parkland
- Dolphin Road is narrow and would be difficult for parking and buses for a combined school
- It might be possible to trade the school land for parkland at the Ward site, which would mean that Ward students would not need to be bused to the 191 Pearl Street site as a swing space. If this were to happen, it is possible that both construction projects could be undertaken at the same time.
Burr Park
- Protected by Article 97*, and the land required to build a consolidated school would be greater than the amount of land currently allotted to both Underwood and Ward.
- Critical field space for Bigelow Middle School
- Site development of a raw site with the change in elevation would cost about $10 million
Underwood
- Mr. Morse confirmed that, despite rumors to the contrary, it would be possible to build a new Underwood School on the existing site, although a renovation/addition would likely not be possible, at least within reasonable cost constraints.
* Article 97 is a state law designed to protect open space. It requires that any City-owned open space that existed when it was passed be maintained as parkland or traded for an alternate piece of land to be turned into parkland. This trade, even when possible, requires a two-thirds vote in favor by the state legislature.
Operations
Mr. Morse estimated that the operational savings from consolidating schools would be, at the low end, $200,000 if strong enrollment projections hold and $450,000 at the high end if enrollments remain stable. However, these savings would likely be eclipsed by the additional transportation costs from busing students within the first year. As transportation costs have been growing at a faster rate than staff costs, the tradeoff on this would likely become worse and not better.
Capital costs
Mr. Morse stated that the capital cost savings from consolidating schools would be relatively modest compared with the reduction in property values and possible future tax growth associated with school consolidations or closures. Another capital/operational tradeoff he cited was that two buildings would allow for more solar arrays, which would help to offset the energy costs associated with new, larger, school buildings.
In response to a question about preserving vs. tearing down and replacing these schools as “architectural gems,” Mr. Morse said that this question of replacing vs. renovating and adding onto an existing building was one of the most contentious issues in the feasibility phase for all of the previous projects, and he expects the same level of community involvement on this question for both Underwood and Ward. The feasibility studies will examine the possibilities and challenges for both at each site, with input from the Newton Historic Commission, before coming to a recommendation. As Mr. Morse said, from an engineering perspective, “we can do anything, but is the juice worth the squeeze?” For example, the Ward site has capacity for a renovation/addition, but because of the site elevation, this would require multiple interior elevators in order to make it an accessible building.
In response to a question about improving learning conditions before any new building is ready, Mr. Morse said that NPS had asked the Public Building Commission to examine the possibilities of installing window air conditioners. Mr. Morse said that there are electrical challenges to doing this, and each room falls into one of three categories: fairly easy, challenging to run conduit wiring but doable, and not possible. He said the Public Building Commission is planning to do the ones that are possible, while also being mindful about not putting too much money into buildings that are likely to be torn down within the next ten years. He said that other schools like Bowen, Mason-Rice, Memorial-Spaulding, Williams, Pierce, and Burr will also need things like new roofs and air conditioning while they wait for larger projects.
Next Steps
Mr. Morse said that his next step is to present to the School Committee on June 1, with a vote expected on June 15. The School Committee would be voting on whether to approve his recommendation to move forward with the feasibility study process for both schools to be either rebuilt or undergo renovation/addition. If that is approved, the feasibility study would take 12-18 months, with a first community meeting occurring this August or September.
At the conclusion of the feasibility studies, a debt exclusion override to secure funding would be put before voters. Mr. Morse said that while the elected officials are in charge of any override proposals, the City anticipates that there will be a debt exclusion package in which Ward and Underwood would be voted on together along with Newton South High School and the Police Headquarters. Such a question would be considered, in part, a referendum on consolidation. If the debt exclusion were approved, the City would move forward with these projects, and if not, the City would go back and likely reconsider consolidation.
Present:
- City Councilors: President John Oliver, Becky Grossman, Julia Malakie, Maria Greenberg, Alison Leary, Brittany Hume Charm
- School Committee: Chair Alicia Piedalue, Vice Chair Jason Bhardwaj, Arrianna Proia, Victor Lee, Jonathan Greene, Tamika Olszewski